Many observers are claiming that Mitt Romney’s recent string of victories, and his mounting delegate count, signal the GOP primary is set to wrap up sooner than Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich have promised.
Permeating the public mindset and the media coverage of the election is the idea that a drawn-out primary will hurt Romney and the Republican Party in the general election. With Obama’s poll numbers on the rise, there seems to exist a correlation between the length of the Romney-Santorum struggle and the growing approval rating for the President. Yet while we focus on the mudslinging and etch-a-sketch slip ups, we are losing site of the larger benefits of a protracted primary fight. The long primary may, in reality, be helping the presumptive nominee.
While an extra few months of intraparty bickering may not be ideal, there are significant upsides for the Republicans to the delegate-numbers race we currently see unfolding in front of us. Most obviously, it keeps the national attention on the GOP. Each and every day there is a new story or gaffe or endorsement is a day that the President loses some airtime to the Republicans.
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The long primary and the contrast between candidates such as Santorum and Gingrich creates an interesting dynamic in terms of ideology: it makes Romney seem more moderate. For the sake of the primaries, this is not ideal – however, in the context of the general election, it appeals to the center of the party, who want a less radical candidate running. By placing Romney in direct contrast to Santorum, Gingrich and Paul, he seems like the most reasoned candidate in the field, which will help him with the critical independent vote.
This primary campaign acts as good preparation for the Romney campaign before they meet the Obama machine in the fall. It has, over the last few months, toughened up Romney, and the attacks levied against him have smoothed out the wrinkles in his campaign, while Obama, who has been getting less heat, hasn’t had the same opportunity to practice his parries. It also serves as Romney’s practice run, oiling the wheels before the larger campaign begins in earnest after the conventions at the end of summer.
Santorum recently said that, “in this primary, the longer it goes the better it is for the party…[it’s] a positive thing for the Republican Party.” While the lengthy primary doesn’t seem to have many benefits for him, he has definitely hit on several key aspects of this race: that while the national dialogue seems to proclaim the negative consequences of such a long drawn out primary, we may find that, come September, the benefits of the drawn-out contest become more evident.
Rick Santorum’s February surge underscores what many have been saying all along: Republican voters are unwilling to accept Mitt Romney as their nominee. While Romney has considerable political experience and remains the strongest threat to President Obama this fall, he has failed to charm the base. Romney’s image is at the core of this problem: Harvard and Massachusetts, long associated with liberal elites, are not popular attributes, particularly in the eyes of Tea Party members. Yet, Romney graduated from Harvard’s Law and Business Schools and served as Governor of Massachusetts.
Tuesday’s photo finish in Iowa cemented Rick Santorum’s emergence as the latest anti-Romney in the GOP race. Several candidates are now campaigning in New Hampshire, a tiny New England state with a contrarian streak. With Romney cruising in the polls and only 12 delegates at stake, HPR alum Alex Burns recently wrote that next Tuesday’s contest would not be important, something most GOP contenders are likely to reiterate. Nevertheless, the first in the nation primary will have key implications for the Republican nomination contest, and cannot be ignored. Here are three storylines I’ll be following: